2021-01-08 [305]

no one does predictions like mark Anderson,Whose forecasts about the intersection of the economy and technology are closely followed in silicon mark Anderson listed his predictions for 2015 during a gathering in San France他在经济和技术交叉领域的成就依然备受硅谷关注。他不仅可以创造世界,还可以预测即将出世的“下一个大事件”和热点地区,还需要洞察哪些热门产品和国家会过激。

安德森领导的战略新闻服务(Strategic News Service)是面向行业领导者和风险投资者的通信出版社。该公司声称拥有众多大牌读者,如戴尔的首席执行官迈克尔奥德尔、特斯拉的首席执行官埃伦奥穆斯克和微软的创始人比尔奥盖茨。最近在旧金山的一次聚会上,马克奥安德森就2015年技术动向公开发表了他的成就。主要观点如下:Tech predictions:技术成就:o digital currencies like bit coin will multiply and go nowhere . currencies require the economic strent poot货币总是一个国家的经济实力和军事实力得不到保障才能得到人们的信任。

O net neutrality,the idea that internet service providers and governments should treat all data equally,will survive.o“网络中性”O papao following the recent series of corporate hackings,Security will be come a priority on CEO agendas.com panies will reverse the downward spendie由于维护不足的网络系统的损失,与构建安全网络的费用相比,大企业仍将减少紧张的安全支出,增加投资。o virtual reality will remain the domain of entertainment . headsets that immerse people in a 3d world will not become a feature of every day life de efaceFacebook花费20亿美元收购Oculus,但能投入3D世界的课件与日常生活相去甚远。

o expect Amazon to stumble . between the brawl with publisher ha chette over e-book prices,drones,and the Amazon fire phone's关于电子书价格问题的Hachette(威廉莎士比亚、温斯顿、电子书、电子书、电子书)。o networks for devices connected to the internet(think refrigerators that let you tweet)Will get off of their launch pads but remain nicheall people really want is low energy costs,lots of TVs,And one remote . people don ' t want complexity replacing reliability And dumb thingle很多人明明可以说的设备互相沟通太简单了,可能不如传统家电可靠。o digital payment service Apple Pay will succeed,establishing it ' s leadership in the market . o Apple Apple的数字支付服务Apple Pay将取得巨大成功,在市场上占据领先地位。

o计算机加密will continue to expand as a major trend . o计算机加密仍然是主流趋势。o personal health And fitness And life style devices will merge,And there will be a plethora of watches And fitness bands on the market . intelligesEconomic predictions:经济未来发展:o oil Prices will stay low . an increased supply of alternative energy and additional oil supplies from frac pricricetrillions of dollars that were tied up in energy spending are now available for bridges,schools And infra structure . it ' s a gift to the world . o用大幅减少的新能源和水力压裂法生产的石油意味着油价不会维持在每桶50 ~ 60美元,比今年年初上涨一半以上。


被能源支出闲置的大量资金现在可以用于桥梁、学校和其他基础设施建设。这将是给全世界的慷慨礼物。o China has a lot to worry about . China ' s economy is driven by politics rather than money . between fudged numbers in government economic Pollution中国经济主要依赖政治,而不是资本。


他们希望保持宏观经济稳定,所以说中国不会陷入困境还为时尚早。但是一旦这一天到来,它就会硬着陆。o Japan is in a sweet spot . for all the talk about how Japan is in trouble-natural disasters,aging workforce-it is,in fact,doiso日本经济今后将陷入经济衰退。虽然对日本的困境众说纷纭,但耳朵——自然灾害、劳动力老化等3354实际上情况并不坏。

依赖高质量出口产品的商业模式。丰田汽车等跨国公司在全球表现强劲,进口比其他国家少,意味着日本经济不会走强。o Samsung is in trouble . Samsung ' s business model is based on selling modified versions of existing inventions like the iphone rather than in the三星公司的商业模式是销售现有发明家(例如iphone)的改进产品,而不是以独立创新产品为基础。

智能手机制造商小米(Xiaomi)等中国竞争对手的强势可能会延续三星的好日子。o India looks pretty good . the recent visits between us and India mean tighter military relations . us is about to give it ' s blessing on ining Weapons美国将增加对实际生产核武器的印度核武器项目的反对。这将是印度和美国在南亚建立更紧密同盟关系的基础,这将使中国紧张。o the European union is going through a cultural clash . Germany makes most of the decisions,and the question is how will the rest of northernEurope especially Sweden,Finland,Norway,and Denmark stand for it?o欧盟将经历文化冲突。

目前大多数决定是在德国做出的,问题是其他北欧国家,特别是瑞典、芬兰、挪威和丹麦是否反对德国。o Australia ' s not doing great . China owns a large chunk of Australia ' s businesses . when Australia had the money to spare,It didn't invest中国持有人澳大利亚企业的大量股权。当澳大利亚手头有钱的时候,它没有把它投资在自己的产业和大学里。